Bihar Exit Polls 2025: NDA Projected to Retain Power, Mahagathbandhan Trails Behind

Patna, November 12:

As the curtain falls on the high-stakes Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 exit polls released on Tuesday evening indicate a strong possibility of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) returning to power with a comfortable majority. The elections held in two phases on November 6 and 11 across 243 constituencies saw enthusiastic voter participation with a record turnout of over 64 percent according to the Election Commission of India.

Most major exit polls have projected a decisive victory for the NDA led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress appears to be trailing significantly.

Exit Poll Figures

According to multiple agencies the NDA is likely to secure between 133 and 167 seats comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122. The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 70 to 102 seats while the newly formed Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) led by Prashant Kishor may not make a significant mark with estimates ranging from 0 to 5 seats.

The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll predicts 145–160 seats for the NDA and 73–91 for the MGB while People’s Pulse puts the NDA between 133–159 seats and the MGB between 75–101 seats. Political analysts say the figures if confirmed would signal a major comeback for Nitish Kumar who has faced criticism over governance issues and shifting political alliances in recent years.

Key political leaders from Bihar representing major parties and alliances ahead of the Bihar Election 2025, as the state awaits the final results following the exit polls.

High Turnout and Voter Mood

The two-phase polling witnessed an impressive voter turnout — the highest ever recorded in Bihar’s electoral history. According to the Election Commission Phase 1 saw 62.45% voting while Phase 2 recorded nearly 67%. Experts suggest that the strong turnout reflects public interest in key issues such as employment law and order and infrastructure. Many voters appeared to favor stability and continuity factors that may have worked in the NDA’s favor.

Performance of Opposition and New Entrants

The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan campaigned aggressively on promises of youth employment and welfare schemes. However exit poll data indicate that the alliance failed to gain sufficient traction beyond its traditional strongholds. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party despite generating attention through its campaign tours and grassroots outreach seems to have made only a limited impact at the ballot box according to early projections.

Analysts’ Perspective

Political observers believe Nitish Kumar’s long administrative experience combined with the BJP’s organizational strength has helped the NDA maintain an edge. The MGB meanwhile may need to reassess its strategy and leadership approach if results on November 14 confirm the exit poll trends. Analyst Ramesh Tiwari noted that the NDA’s consolidation across urban and semi-urban regions appears strong while the Mahagathbandhan did better in select pockets but could not convert sentiment into statewide gains.

Caution Over Exit Polls

While the predictions show a clear lead for the NDA experts caution that exit polls have occasionally diverged from actual outcomes. Official counting of votes will take place on November 14 and the Election Commission is expected to release constituency-wise results by the evening.

What Lies Ahead

If the projections hold true Nitish Kumar could begin his ninth term as Chief Minister of Bihar marking a rare political milestone. A strong NDA victory would also strengthen the ruling alliance’s position ahead of upcoming state elections in 2026 and could influence national political narratives leading into the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. However any deviation from the predicted trend could dramatically alter Bihar’s political landscape and open new discussions about leadership alliances and voter sentiment in the state.